Thursday, August 1, 2013
Apps That Know What You Want, Before You Do
Thursday, May 23, 2013
DealBook Column: But Wait. Didn’t Yahoo Try a Deal Like This Before?
Mark J. Terrill/Associated PressGeoCities workers after Yahoo bought it in 1999. Some worry the Tumblr deal is similarly poor.When Yahoo announced its headline-grabbing acquisition, it boasted that the deal gave it access to an “unduplicated” audience of users and that its target was a “popular personal publishing” platform.
“Yahoo will be able to integrate and distribute a powerful set of state-of-the-art editing tools and content published through personal home pages in an array of services,” the company declared.
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But Yahoo wasn’t talking about Tumblr. Those quotes came from a news release Yahoo issued in 1999 when it acquired GeoCities, which allowed users to create their own Web pages — not unlike Tumblr — for $3.6 billion in stock. The site was closed in 2009.
As investors and analysts size up Yahoo’s latest $1.1 billion acquisition, it is worth reflecting on the GeoCities deal, which has many similarities. Both companies were money losers when they agreed to be acquired. Tumblr had just $13 million in revenue last year, according to reports.
Both companies had loyal followers that quickly left in droves. According to Matt Mullenweg, the founder of WordPress and a competitor, Tumblr users were moving their posts over to WordPress at a rate of 72,000 an hour amid speculation of an impending deal this weekend. (Usually, he said, Tumblr users migrated 400 to 600 posts an hour). Still, for perspective, Tumblr users generate tens of millions of posts a day.
And GeoCities and Tumblr had at one point been averse to accepting advertising. Tumblr’s 26-year-old chief executive (and now multimillionaire), David Karp, said three years ago, “We’re pretty opposed to advertising,” adding that “It turns our stomach.”
The lesson of GeoCities raises this question about Tumblr: How can a company with zero profits (actually, multimillion-dollar losses) and just $13 million in revenue be worth $1.1 billion?
Inside Yahoo, officials dismiss the comparison to GeoCities. Instead, they compare the Tumblr deal to Google’s purchase of YouTube — that is, Yahoo’s management believes that Tumblr is one of a rare few transformative sites on the Internet. Google paid $1.6 billion for YouTube when it too made no money. At the time of that deal, it seemed heretical. Now, it seems genius.
To Yahoo, Tumblr is the equivalent of beachfront property. With more than 100 million user-generated blogs on Tumblr, there is no question that it brings Yahoo a younger audience. It adds a sense of hipness to a company that had lost its sense of cool.
According to Marissa Mayer, Yahoo’s chief executive, who drove this deal, Tumblr brings Yahoo a possible growth engine for the future.
But that’s a big if. It requires Ms. Mayer’s team to execute brilliantly and online users to continue to want to establish ways to communicate outside of places like Facebook and Twitter.
And then there is the pesky issue of selling ads on Tumblr’s pages without upsetting the site’s finicky users. (One user began a petition to block the deal.)
“It is difficult to justify the premium acquisition price for Tumblr given its low levels of revenue,” wrote Anthony DiClemente of Barclays Capital in a note to investors. “In addition, we believe Yahoo needs to be careful about the manner in which it monetizes Tumblr, as a significant ad load and the perception of a large corporate owner could potentially alienate Tumblr’s core user base. Though we believe Tumblr’s model does have switching costs for users, we do not view its actual barriers to entry as particularly high.”
If you want to do the math on what it would take for Yahoo to justify the price tag, Brian Pitz, an analyst at Jefferies, has sketched it out. By his count, Yahoo will need to figure out a way to make $127 million a year in profit from Tumblr, meaning the site would have to bring in an additional $950 million annually in advertising revenue.
That’s a big challenge, especially considering that Ms. Mayer pledged that while she planned to add more ads to Tumblr, she would do so mostly on the site’s “dashboard” or newsfeed.
“We would like to look at them and understand how we could introduce ads — in a very light ad load — where the impact is really created, because the ads really fit the users’ expectations and follow the form and function of the dashboard,” Ms. Mayer said.
She said she might add advertising to user pages, but only with the permission of the blogger. That means a lot of Web pages will not be monetized.
And there is the issue of porn. Yes, porn. At least some of Tumblr’s users post images that are not exactly “work safe.” Indeed, Tumblr’s own terms of service allows for such content. Such content could make Tumblr a challenging environment for advertisers.
Tumblr’s users also regularly post copyrighted images and other content Yahoo will have to find a way to police. When Tumblr was just an upstart, content owners were unlikely to pursue claims against the company, but now that it might be owned by a big public corporation, you can bet that copyright owners, some of whom compete with Yahoo, will be contacting their lawyers.
Given all of that, you might expect me to say that Yahoo should have never proposed acquiring Tumblr. But I won’t.
It may actually turn out to be the right bet. The key is recognizing that it is a shoot-the-moon gamble. It might work out. It might not.
And even if it does not work out, analysts note that Yahoo can afford to experiment given the billions of dollars it has in cash.
As Jordan Rohan, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus, wrote: “Even a squandering of $1.1 billion in cash, however unlikely that might seem to Yahoo management, would only move the sum-of-parts slightly.”
This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: May 22, 2013
The DealBook column on Tuesday, about the similarities between Yahoo’s deal for Tumblr and its deal more than a decade ago for GeoCities, misidentified an analyst from Barclays Capital who commented on the Tumblr transaction in a note to investors. He is Anthony DiClemente — not Doug Anmuth, who is an analyst for JPMorgan Chase.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Alan F. Westin, Who Transformed Privacy Debate Before the Web Era, Dies at 83
Thursday, November 22, 2012
When Phones Come Out Long Before the Turkey
Robbie Brown contributed reporting.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Down From Jump: Famous Baby Mommas Who Were Baby Mommas Before Fame
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Usually people associate baby mommas as women that came in the game after someone gets famous, has his baby and gets rich. That’s not always the case as many baby mommas were down from day one, just getting lucky that their men went on to stardom. Maybe hese ladies just know a good investment when they see one and should play the stock market or something. Either way, commend them for being down since day one.
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Saturday, October 13, 2012
Khloe And Lamar Matrimony-dom In Trouble? Is The NBA Baller Mad His Wife Put Work Before Family?
KHLOE KARDASHIAN scored a slam dunk when she was asked to co-host “The X Factor” – but the prospective gig has left her hoops-playing hubby Lamar Odom feeling like he’s been fouled!
According to insiders, Lamar, 32, is incensed that 28-year-old Khloe is going back on her word to dedicate this year to starting a family and supporting his NBA comeback in Los Angeles.
“Khloe told Lamar that this was going to be his time – she even agreed to put the third season of their reality show on hold so he could concentrate on getting his confidence back on the basketball court,” said a source.
In April, Lamar was listed as “inactive” with the Dallas Mavericks and did not play for the remainder of the season. But he got another shot when he was traded to the L.A. Clippers in June.
“Khloe promised that his career would be the priority,” continued the insider. “She also agreed that they would spend more time together in an attempt to have a baby.
“They’ve been trying for three years without any luck. And Khloe’s been gung-ho about alternative conception methods – including IVF.
“But now she is going to be totally consumed with ‘The X Factor,’ and he’ll be spending a lot of time on the road with the Clippers. So they’ll see less of each other than ever.”
The couple celebrated their third wedding anniversary on Sept. 27, but now friends say there’s so much tension between them that they may not make it another year.
In an interview earlier this year, Khloe insisted that women should “put [their] husband first,” and added that “part of being married is knowing when your husband needs your support.”
But when Simon Cowell asked Khloe to be co-host on “The X Factor’s” second season with “Extra” hunk Mario Lopez, she seemed quick to put Lamar’s needs on the back burner. She’s been telling pals the offer was simply “too good” to turn down.
“It will bring her huge exposure, a large paycheck and make her an even bigger name,” noted the insider.
“Lamar is really hurt and angry. He can’t help feeling betrayed by Khloe’s decision to spend more time on her career than on his. It’s like she’s choosing money over love.”
Tell that ninja to sit his big depressed azz down somewhere! What if he ends up inactive again? Then he’ll be glad his wife has paper to pay all the bills they’re generating in that house.
Do you think Lamar has a point though? If they’re trying to get pregnant shouldn’t Khloe be resting and taking it easy instead of working on a demanding TV set?
Friday, October 5, 2012
Bits Blog: H.P.’s Chief Says a Revival Is Unlikely Before 2016
7:45 p.m. | Updated
SAN FRANCISCO — Meg Whitman, Hewlett-Packard’s chief executive, beat up her company on Wednesday.
Ms. Whitman told a meeting of Wall Street analysts that they should expect sharply lower revenue and profits. She also told them not to expect the company to fully right itself before 2016. “We have much more work to do,” she said.
While the news was not completely unexpected, the vehemence of Ms. Whitman’s message drove shareholders to the exits. H.P.’s stock dropped about 8 percent while she was speaking and ended the day at $14.91 a share, down nearly 13 percent on unusually high trading volume. The stock had not been that low in a decade.
The drubbing was probably what Ms. Whitman, the former chief of eBay, had in mind. Executives involved in her presentation, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said she wanted to get as much bad news as possible out at once, so the company could focus on rebuilding rather than having to explain one disappointing quarter after another.
Analysts, while somewhat taken aback by the depth of H.P.’s problems, thought Ms. Whitman had made the right move in putting them out in the open. “In an era where C.E.O.’s watch every word they say, it’s refreshing to see complete candor. H.P. is a mess,” said Patrick Moorhead, president of Moor Insights and Strategy, who attended the meeting. “It will take five to 10 years to fully take care of this, just the way it took I.B.M. to remake itself. Wall Street doesn’t like anything longer than a one- to three-year horizon. It’s too much risk for them.”
For now, Hewlett-Packard is still the world’s leader in sales of personal computers, printers and computer servers, with revenue last year of $127 billion, but it forecast revenue next year of 11 percent to 13 percent below fiscal 2012 levels. Analysts had assumed it would only decrease about 1 percent.
Operating profit margins, which have been about 7 percent, could evaporate completely or, at best, shrink to about 3 percent, the company said. Earnings per share were expected to fall by about 16 percent from what analysts had projected.
The meeting was probably also Ms. Whitman’s last chance to blame previous leaders for any of H.P.’s problems. Since 1999, H.P. has had three other chief executives, each with a different vision and operating strategy. All left under duress, leaving a company that leads the industry in revenue but is internally chaotic.
Those problems now belong to Ms. Whitman, who took over almost 13 months ago. She has replaced a number of top executives, and has initiated changes to product development and the company’s global marketing and branding. These changes will start to appear next year, but she is clearly impatient to fix more things faster.
“Operational excellence should have become a way of life,” she told analysts, but instead, H.P. is hampered by poor internal communications and management systems.
“I’ve learned at H.P. that you do not get what you expect, you get what you inspect,” she said.
Investors may also have been troubled by some of Ms. Whitman’s strategy. She intends to shrink the number of products H.P. makes, and to move out of businesses that are in decline.
For example, she said the company made more than 2,100 varieties of laser printers, causing excess costs in everything from parts to packaging requirements.
Printer cartridges were once responsible for over 90 percent of H.P.’s profits, but they face increasing competition from lower-price suppliers. Consumers are also using their printers less because many of the things they used to print routinely, like maps and boarding passes, are on smartphones.
H.P. is reversing its printer strategy in the developing world by selling cheaper cartridges and more expensive printers. In developed economies like the United States, it wants to move to a subscription model in which business customers pay an annual fee, and their Internet-connected printers get new cartridges when the system detects they are low on ink.
Investors could be skittish about plans like these, simply because they are not yet proved. Indeed, H.P. shares fell further as Ms. Whitman’s lieutenants laid out the new strategies.
In other areas, there are questions about whether H.P.’s new products can replace, or even surpass, the revenue lost from declining businesses. Cloud computing systems, which consist of thousands of servers sold as a unit, are meant for an increasingly important market. Cloud computing is more efficient than existing systems, however, which means it is likely to lower the overall demand for large numbers of servers.
For all the difficulties she identified, Ms. Whitman may have actually cloaked other long-term problems. The new company she foresees, which she projected would exist by 2016 or so, would probably increase revenue no faster than the overall growth of the global economy. Profit margins would improve from better management, but not necessarily from technological innovations.
The new H.P. would most likely employ fewer workers, as well. Ms. Whitman has already announced a total of 29,000 layoffs. The company had 349,600 employees at the end of last October. She said future profitability would depend in part on more automation, indicating even more job cuts.
While Ms. Whitman said H.P. must focus more closely on its top 14 markets and its main competitors, a continued low stock price may present other worries. The tech industry is facing a transition from traditional PCs and servers to mobile devices and cloud computing, and is consolidating. H.P. could become a target either for corporate raiders or for another tech company in a hostile takeover.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Bits Blog: A New Google App Gives You Local Information - Before You Ask for It
Google has created a new mobile app that gives people facts about the places around them — unprompted, without the need to even ask for the information.
The app, Field Trip, offers historical trivia about a park, an architectural factoid about a building or reviews of a nearby restaurant. Google says it’s like having a local friend with you as you make your way through a city.
“The idea behind the app was to build something that would help people connect with the real, physical world around them,” said John Hanke, a vice president of product at Google who runs a small lab at the company building location-based and social mobile apps. “It’s always running in the background, so it knows where you are and is always looking to see if something interesting is in your immediate physical environment.”
While the app might seem small, it reveals a lot about the big directions Google wants to go.
Google, along with other companies and researchers, dreams of so-called ubiquitous computing or ambient intelligence — computers woven into the texture of life as opposed to being separate machines. Eventually, the theory goes, computers will be part of the environment, know where people are and anticipate what they want to know.
The Field Trip app is a small step in that direction, and an example of what Google is capable of doing. Another is Google Glass, the Internet-connected eyeglass frames with a small screen. With Field Trip, Google is trying to move beyond the first generation of mobile apps, which were not much more than desktop transplants, Mr. Hanke said.
Google wants to “move the device out of your way and put the information front and center,” he said, so people can “scan the environment and know what the Web knows about the places around you.”
Fans of “Iron Man,” “The Terminator” or William Gibson’s science fiction will recognize this idea of augmented reality, he said. “What we’re doing is essentially building the information framework and tools to enable that kind of experience in the future.”
More immediately, Field Trip is a big step toward helping Google get its services and ads in front of mobile users. While it has long been a dream of advertising companies to deliver ads to people on their phones when they are near a business, that is still relatively rare. But with Field Trip, Google is able to show restaurant reviews from its Zagat service or sell deals from Google Offers or city tours from Vayable, all based on a person’s location.
In addition to Google’s own services, most of the information in Field Trip comes from a few dozen publishing partners, some esoteric, including Arcadia Publishing, Atlas Obscura, Curbed, Eater and Cool Hunting.
Field Trip uses signals from nearby cellphone towers to determine a user’s location. Its users can choose from which publishers they receive alerts — so they could turn off alerts for Google Offers, for instance — and how frequently they want to receive them. They can also choose not to receive alerts, in which case they open the app to find information.
Users can also ask Field Trip to read them notifications if the phone is connected to a headset or Bluetooth or if they are driving — and the app will determine on its own that they are driving based on how fast they are moving.
Mr. Hanke, who co-founded Keyhole, a mapping start-up that Google bought to help it develop maps, was the head of Google Maps for several years. Last year, he decided he wanted to leave Google to found another start-up. But Larry Page, Google’s chief executive, persuaded him to stay, Mr. Hanke said, and start a small lab in San Francisco. He named it Niantic Labs, after a ship that traveled to San Francisco during the Gold Rush.
Field Trip is available for Android phones; Google is working on an iPhone version. To introduce the app, Google on Saturday is playing host at parties in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago and Minneapolis for people to explore the cities. Attendance is free. Registration is at FieldTripDay.com.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Gadgetwise Blog: An iPhone 5 Case Arrives Before the iPhone 5
Before the announcement of the new iPhone 5 was made, the first protective case for the 5 arrived on my desk. I also got a news release promising me that another case was available as well.
How is it possible to build a case for a phone wrapped in secrecy?
The iPhone and many iPhone accessories are manufactured in Shenzhen, China. “There has always been a bit of a rumor mill around the companies in Shenzhen,” said Tim Hickman, whose company Hard Candy Holdings makes both cases I mentioned, one under the Hard Candy brand and one under the Gumdrop brand.
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Mr. Hickman said Shenzhen manufacturers routinely pass around design information to the point where it is no longer an open secret but a strategy to attract customers like Mr. Hickman. “The factories have gone from, ‘Shhh, hey, buddy, look at what I have for you,’ to making it part of their presentation,” he said.
Mr. Hickman said his company doesn’t pay for design information or seek it out, but it will examine what it is offered. “We’ve literally had the information e-mailed to use blindly from several factories, so that’s where the data comes from.”
Still, being first to market still holds risks. Mr. Hickman said his company prepared cases based on rumors of a new iPhone last October. “It was a swing and a miss,” he said. “We spent the money to make all of the tooling but didn’t have the lead time to physically make cases.”
This time, though, he said his confidence level was higher. One reason is that a factory with a good track record said it could make cases for the iPhone 5, but rather than show the plans to Mr. Hickman, it had him send designs that the factory would modify.
He lowered the risk this time by ordering the tooling and 5,000 units of each case design, the $45 Gumdrop Drop Tech Series and the $40 Hard Candy Shock Drop. He chose not to ship them from China until he was certain that the phone was really available this time. “The product cost itself is not overly significant,” said Mr. Hickman. “The freight can be more than the iPhone case itself.”
Some of the cases – 3,000 of each were sold overseas, leaving 2,000 of each for the United States – will arrive here in about three days and should start shipping to customers on Sept. 21 or 22, Mr. Hickman said.
How well the cases fit the phone, I can’t say. I have the case, but no phone.
App Smart: Apps That Recall a Time Before There Were Apps
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Check Out the Before Watchmen: Moloch #1 Cover
As revealed last month, DC Comics has more Before Watchmen on the way in the form of Before Watchmen: Moloch. Today, BuzzFeed revealed the cover to issue #1.
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Before Watchmen: Moloch is written by J. Michael Straczynski with art by Eduardo Risso.
Joey is IGN's Comics Editor and a comic book creator himself. Follow Joey on Twitter, or find him on IGN. He loves superhero pets so hard.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Gadgetwise Blog: An iPhone 5 Case Arrives Before the iPhone 5
Before the announcement of the new iPhone 5 was made, the first protective case for the 5 arrived on my desk. I also got a news release promising me that another case was available as well.
How is it possible to build a case for a phone wrapped in secrecy?
The iPhone and many iPhone accessories are manufactured in Shenzhen, China. “There has always been a bit of a rumor mill around the companies in Shenzhen,” said Tim Hickman, whose company Hard Candy Holdings makes both cases I mentioned, one under the Hard Candy brand and one under the Gumdrop brand.
\ABS\Auto Blog Samurai\data\Stakk Money Ent.\Technology Feed\12gw-case-blog480.jpg)
Mr. Hickman said Shenzhen manufacturers routinely pass around design information to the point where it is no longer an open secret but a strategy to attract customers like Mr. Hickman. “The factories have gone from, ‘Shhh, hey, buddy, look at what I have for you,’ to making it part of their presentation,” he said.
Mr. Hickman said his company doesn’t pay for design information or seek it out, but it will examine what it is offered. “We’ve literally had the information e-mailed to use blindly from several factories, so that’s where the data comes from.”
Still, being first to market still holds risks. Mr. Hickman said his company prepared cases based on rumors of a new iPhone last October. “It was a swing and a miss,” he said. “We spent the money to make all of the tooling but didn’t have the lead time to physically make cases.”
This time, though, he said his confidence level was higher. One reason is that a factory with a good track record said it could make cases for the iPhone 5, but rather than show the plans to Mr. Hickman, it had him send designs that the factory would modify.
He lowered the risk this time by ordering the tooling and 5,000 units of each case design, the $45 Gumdrop Drop Tech Series and the $40 Hard Candy Shock Drop. He chose not to ship them from China until he was certain that the phone was really available this time. “The product cost itself is not overly significant,” said Mr. Hickman. “The freight can be more than the iPhone case itself.”
Some of the cases – 3,000 of each were sold overseas, leaving 2,000 of each for the United States – will arrive here in about three days and should start shipping to customers on Sept. 21 or 22, Mr. Hickman said.
How well the cases fit the phone, I can’t say. I have the case, but no phone.