Bits Blog: E-Reader Market Shrinks Faster Than Many Predicted

Jes Aznar for The New York Times

Nearly three years after the first iPad was introduced, the tablet has come a long way. Now there are plenty of smaller, cheaper tablets that are pretty powerful. So why buy a more primitive e-book reader?

That appears to be what a lot of people are thinking this year. The research firm the International Data Corporation found a surge in shipments this year of what it called “smart connected devices,” including tablets, smartphones and PCs. That market grew 27.1 percent from last year, to 303.6 million shipments, according to IDC.

Meanwhile, e-book readers are losing momentum. This year, worldwide shipments of e-book readers will fall to 14.9 million units from 23.2 million units last year — a 36 percent drop, according to estimates by IHS iSuppli. The research firm eMarketer noted these trends in a report published on Thursday.

Forrester Research is seeing a similar trend. In the United States, manufacturers sold nine million e-book readers this year, down from 15.5 million last year, according to Sarah Rotman Epps, a Forrester analyst. Next year, the number of e-book readers sold will be 7.5 million units, and in 2014 that number will drop to 5.3 million and keep falling from there, Forrester predicts.

Does it make much sense anymore to buy e-book readers? They are still far cheaper than tablets — the cheapest Kindle costs $70, while the cheapest Kindle Fire tablet costs $160. But many people are choosing to pay extra to get the features of a tablet, Ms. Rotman Epps said. In a survey conducted by Forrester, 12 percent of respondents said they had bought a tablet instead of an e-book reader, and 39 percent of tablet owners said they wouldn’t buy an e-book reader in the future.

“It’s looking like e-readers were a device for a particular moment in time that, more rapidly than we or anyone else thought, has been replaced by a new technology,” Ms. Rotman Epps said in an interview.

That doesn’t mean Amazon and Barnes & Noble, which have been big sellers of e-book readers, need to worry. Those companies have been offering touch-screen tablets for a while now. The companies that will be most vulnerable to this trend are those that primarily make e-book readers, like Kobo, Ms. Rotman Epps said.

Gadgetwise Blog: Print to Pixels: Picking an E-Reader

The Amazon Kindle Paperwhite, left, and the Nook Simple Touch With Glowlight.

E-readers are not quite books, but most use some form of electronic ink to mimic books, right down to the ability to mark your place by virtually turning down page corners. The advantage over books is that you can carry a thousand tomes in a tiny reader, and search for passages as you would on a computer. Unlike on a computer, a battery charge can last weeks.

When it comes to pure e-readers, those monochromatic slates that are just for consuming books and magazines, there are still a lot of features to consider before you buy.

The first consideration is size. Which is more important to you, portability or large print? Screen sizes range from about 5 inches, around the size of a trade paperback, to about 10 inches, approximately the size of a hardback.

But the largest screens aren’t necessarily the easiest to read – there is also the matter of resolution, which affects how sharp the text looks. For instance, the Amazon Kindle Paperwhite has a 5-inch screen, but rivals 10-inch readers with its 1,024-by-758 screen resolution.

The readers have to connect to the Internet to download books, but the method affects the price. Wi-Fi-only models tend to be less expensive than those that also connect over the 3G phone network. The Paperwhite is available with Wi-Fi only for $120, or with a 3G connection for $180. The spontaneity of 3G’s ability to download books anytime and anywhere is attractive, but since the reader is estimated to hold more than 1,000 books at a time, with a little planning you won’t run out of reading material between nearly ubiquitous Wi-Fi hotspots.

Another consideration is if you like to read in the dark. Screens that are not illuminated, like that of the bargain $100 Nook Simple Touch require a light source, like a regular book. The similar Nook Simple Touch With Glowlight ($120) has its own light. But that will drain the battery more quickly.

There are readers with even more advanced features, like color screens – better for enjoying magazines – that allow readers to also watch video, listen to music, browse the Web and send e-mail. But arguably those machines, like the $200 Kindle Fire HD, cross the line from e-reader to tablet.