Sunday, June 16, 2013
Study Gauges Value of Technology in Schools
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Apple-1 Computers Jump in Value at Auctions
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: May 25, 2013
An earlier version of this article misstated the identity of the original owner of an Apple-1 being auctioned on Saturday in Germany. The owner was Fred Hatfield, a retired electrical engineer living in New Orleans, not the Fred Hatfield who was a former professional baseball player who died in 1998.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
You're the Boss Blog: Putting a Dollar Value on a Facebook Fan
Courtesy of Syncapse Michael ScissonsAs noted in Monday’s Dashboard summary of the week’s small-business news, a social media marketing firm, Syncapse, has published a report that says the average value of a Facebook fan is $174.17. Seeking further details about the calculation and its potential impact on a small-business owner’s social media investment, we reached out to the company’s chief executive, Michael Scissons, and had the following conversation, which has been edited and condensed.
How can small-business owners figure out what their fans are worth?
The value of a Facebook fan is determined by comparing actual fans versus nonfans across key criteria that determine enterprise value. In our study, the fan value calculation considers: One, product spending within the past 12 months. Two, loyalty and purchase intent in the future. Three, the propensity to recommend the brand to other potential customers. Four, the media and messaging value that is inherent with fan membership. Five, the propensity for fans to organically lure more fans. And Six, the emotional draw felt by brands or brand affinity.
You surveyed 2,000 panelists. Would you recommend that small-business owners looking to understand the value of their fans undertake a similar exercise?
The scale and precision in our research requires an investment that is likely out of range of most small businesses. However, a small business could execute a lightweight version that attempts to measure the key value factors across its fans and nonfans. A benchmark is always helpful in understanding where you stand and if Facebook is a worthwhile investment for customer growth and loyalty.
Your survey found that 11 percent of Facebook brand fans are more likely to continue using the brands than a non-Facebook fan. Do you think this seems low?
The 11 percent is an average, so that number will be higher or lower depending on the brand. Regardless, we view 11 percent as significant, especially considering that brand fans also spend 43 percent more in respective categories versus nonfans, despite not having a higher income. Those numbers can have compounding impact on the long-term performance of a brand.
Can a similar methodology be applied to sites like Pinterest, LinkedIn or Twitter?
Our methodology can be applied to any sort of membership within a larger customer group.
Do you think a Facebook fan is more valuable than a LinkedIn Connection or a Twitter follower?
Our public study did not compare the average value of Facebook fans versus Twitter or LinkedIn connections. However, our experience working with many of the world’s largest global marketers shows that fan value varies among brands as well as networks. Many mass-market global brands with low price points may see a higher value with Facebook fans versus connections on other social networks, because that’s where their customers are. Conversely, high-end or luxury brands may see a higher fan value on LinkedIn, because that’s where their customers frequent. The key is to experiment and find out the facts for your own individual brand.
Are there three things you would suggest small businesses do to leverage the value of their Facebook fans?
First, it’s important to observe your customers and see how they use Facebook. If they are on Facebook, then you have an amazing opportunity to connect with them in a new way — as do your competitors. Second, you should experiment and learn firsthand. This is new territory, so trial-and-error and learning from others is key. As you scale up, you’ll want to designate formal accountability for the social marketing efforts, and that often falls under the person responsible for marketing and customer acquisition. The biggest barrier to success is the time investment. Third, connect social marketing to business outcome. That may be awareness, lead generation, trials or even cold, hard sales. State your goal, define the success criteria, measure, and invest accordingly.
Gene Marks owns the Marks Group, a Bala Cynwyd, Pa., consulting firm that helps clients with customer relationship management. You can follow him on Twitter.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Disruptions: How Deal Makers Put a Value on Start-Ups - Disruptions
Annie Tritt for The New York Times Otis Chandler and his wife, Elizabeth Khuri Chandler, the founders of Goodreads, a social media site that recently sold for a reported $150 million.I have a vision of how suitors decide how much to offer for a start-up they want to buy. Several executives go into a conference room. Each scribbles a number on a piece of paper and places it in a hat. Then the chief executive pulls out a number, and there it is.
It might sound like a stretch, but given the seemingly random and sometimes nonsensical amounts for which start-ups with no revenue, or no users, or even no product are bought, I might not be far off.
But let’s say there is a logical way to value a company. During Bubble 1.0 there seemed to be — at least sometimes. Tech start-ups were valued by the number of eyeballs they attracted. When Broadcast.com was acquired by Yahoo for $5.9 billion in stock in April 1999, it was estimated that the company paid $10,000 per user.
Today, when eyeballs mean much less, how do start-ups with no revenue come up with a valuation? Well, it depends on a buyer’s reason for wanting the company.
One of the growing forms of acquisitions is an acqui-hire, in which a company is bought for its talent.
“If the company has no revenue and no users, then it comes down to the price of each engineer, which on average ranges between $750,000 to $1.5 million per person,” said Sam Hamadeh, chief executive of PrivCo, a firm that follows privately held companies, who noted that such acquisitions were up 91 percent from a year ago. “Facebook certainly pioneered and popularized this phenomenon as it made acquisitions to essentially snuff out competition.”
An investor report released by PrivCo in late March found that 12 of the acquisitions by Facebook last year were of this type. Often Facebook integrated the engineers and then shut the newly purchased company. The report also found that Twitter had acquired eight companies to get their engineering talent. Yahoo, Google, Apple, LinkedIn and Airbnb have also done transactions just for engineers.
Given Mr. Hamadeh’s estimate, we can begin to guess at a start-up’s value if it’s clearly an acqui-hire. If a company has 10 employees, no revenue and no users, it could be worth about $15 million. Throw in the cost of some office equipment, shutting down the technology and paying back investors, and it’s valued at $30 million.
Chris Dixon, a general partner at the venture firm Andreessen Horowitz, said in an interview that although some of the recent start-up acquisition prices might seem high, many are amortized over four years, which makes some deals seem more rational. “If you’re paying $1 million per engineer in an acqui-hire, that’s split up over four years and ends up equaling the salary of other engineers in the Valley,” he said.
But some of these transactions have people scratching their heads — like that of Summly, a news-reading app built by a 17-year-old with two employees, which Yahoo bought for a reported $30 million last month. As Emin Gün Sirer, an associate professor at Cornell, noted, Summly didn’t use any unique technology and has only a couple of employees.
When a company has users and it is a straight-up product acquisition, the numbers can be more difficult to figure out. Amazon recently purchased Goodreads, a social media site built around sharing books, for a sum said to be $150 million. Mailbox, which had not properly begun, sold for $100 million last month to DropBox. And, of course, there is Instagram, which was bought for $1 billion.
Thomas R. Eisenmann, a professor at the Harvard Business School, said that when companies weren’t being acquired just for their talent — like Goodreads and Instagram — three possible calculations were used to determine a valuation. The first requires exploring how much time and effort it would take to build the product from scratch and attract new users. The second is potential cash flow.
The third is “in the realm of, ‘What number do we need to put on the table to convince the management and investors to part with their dream?’ ” he said. “Often, they end up somewhere in the magic middle.”
Of course, all of this math starts to fall apart when a start-up receives an exorbitant amount of press and exposure on social networks. Then suitors become irrational, making the price people are willing to pay seem as if it were plucked out of a hat.
E-mail: bilton@nytimes.com
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
A Clash Across Europe Over the Value of a Click
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Bits Blog: Google's Market Capitalization Leapfrogs Microsoft's Value
8:34 p.m. | Updated
SEATTLE — For Microsoft, it was bad enough when Apple’s stock market value surpassed its own in 2010. Now Google, a company that didn’t even exist 15 years ago, just did the same thing.
On Monday, a slight bump in Google’s share price and a drop in Microsoft’s gave Google a market capitalization of $249.19 billion, just ahead of Microsoft’s $247.44 billion. Google’s market value also edged past that of Wal-Mart Stores, making it the third most valuable United States company behind Apple and Exxon Mobil. Market value is determined by multiplying a company’s stock price by the number of shares it has outstanding.
It was one more sign that the technology industry had entered what some call a post-PC era. Investors are becoming more bullish on the growth opportunities ahead for Google, a company whose fortunes are predicated on the Internet and, increasingly, on mobile devices and services.
Microsoft, meanwhile, has not been able to shake the view that its software business is still largely beholden, in one way or another, to the PC, a technology that is now looking stale next to younger, faster-growing devices like the smartphone and tablet. Microsoft’s software business, though still highly profitable, is not growing the way it once was.
Microsoft once had one of the technology industry’s highest-flying stocks, but its shares have stagnated over the past decade after many big investments by the company, especially in the consumer market, failed to pay off. Its Bing search engine is a big money-loser and a distant second in the market behind Google. Its mobile software business has been marginalized by Apple and Google with their iPhone and Android products.
Microsoft’s Xbox video game business is a bona fide hit, but it delivers nowhere near the profits of venerable Microsoft franchises like Office and Windows. Brent Thill, an analyst at UBS, said that Microsoft had done a respectable job of delivering revenue and profit growth, but that the weakness of its newer products had clouded the company’s future in the minds of investors.
“People have failed to give them a deeper multiple because everyone thinks they’re on the downhill,” Mr. Thill said.
Tony Imperati, a spokesman for Microsoft, declined to comment, as did Niki Fenwick, a spokeswoman for Google.
Even though Google has reliably been a moneymaking machine, its stock has been held back for several years because investors have wanted proof that it can make money in ways other than selling search ads. These ads account for a large majority of Google’s revenue, and their growth is slowing.
Google’s attempts to find other sources of revenue, like display and mobile ads, have potential. But many investors had not been convinced, because it takes new businesses some time to grow, and because a business must be very profitable to be more than a drop in the bucket of Google’s earnings from search ads. At the same time, Google’s experiments, like self-driving cars or Groupon-style deals, made some worry that it was throwing money at the wrong places.
Now, however, Google is beginning to convince investors that it is more than a one-trick pony. There is evidence that it has successfully expanded beyond search ads, including with display ads on YouTube and mobile ads on Android phones and other devices. The stock is up 18 percent this year.
Google is expected to topple Facebook and Yahoo this year as the leader in online display advertising, bringing in $2.31 billion in display ad revenue, according to eMarketer. The speed at which Google has come to dominate display advertising surprised analysts who study the company and the advertising industry.
Microsoft’s revenue is still larger than Google’s and is likely to remain so for a while. For the quarter that ended June 30, Microsoft posted revenue of $18.06 billion, while Google reported revenue of $12.21 billion. But while analysts expect Microsoft’s revenue to grow in the high single digits for the next couple of years, they say they believe Google’s revenue could rise roughly 27 percent next year.
“They have vastly different growth prospects,” said Bill Whyman, an analyst at International Strategy & Investment.
Two years ago, Steven P. Jobs, then Apple’s chief executive, began promoting the idea that the rise of the iPhone, iPad and other mobile devices heralded the arrival of a post-PC era. That argument gained credence with investors, helping to propel Apple’s market value past Microsoft’s.
Google has a long way to go before it catches Apple, which has a market value of $618.44 billion.
Nick Wingfield reported from Seattle, and Claire Cain Miller from San Francisco.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
State of the Art: Placing a Dollar Value on Apple’s Mountain Lion Software - State of the Art
Friday, July 27, 2012
State of the Art: Placing a Dollar Value on Apple’s Mountain Lion Software — State of the Art
Thursday, July 26, 2012
DealBook: Square Near a Deal to Value It at $3.25 Billion
Square Register uses the company’s reader and an app to turn an iPad into a credit card register.For all of Square’s challenges, raising money has not been one.
Square, the mobile payments start-up best known for its pint-size credit card reader, is close to raising roughly $200 million, which would give the company an implied valuation of $3.25 billion, people briefed on the matter said. This financing round is expected to be led by Suhail Rizvi, the head of Rizvi Traverse Management, a small private equity firm that has made investments in Twitter and Playboy, these people added.
The hefty investment — the company’s third in less than two years — will help Square battle with the likes of Google, Intuit and PayPal. But it also puts enormous pressure on Square, led by Jack Dorsey, the co-founder and executive chairman of Twitter, to prove its worth.
The company, which is three years old and based in San Francisco, still has to prove that it will be a big winner in mobile payments — and that it will grow into a highly profitable business.
On paper, at least, Square’s value has soared in just a short period of time.
Last summer, it raised $100 million, valuing the company at $1.6 billion. Several months before that, Square had another investment at a $240 million valuation. All told, the company’s valuation has grown by 13.5 times in less than two years.
Still, it may have wanted more from this round.
In recent months, Square had been seeking an investment that would peg its value as high as $4 billion, people familiar with the discussions said. Although it found some investors willing to participate at that level, it ultimately preferred a different group. And those investors didn’t have the stomach for $4 billion, these people said.
Unlike Square’s previous financing rounds, which prominently featured big venture capital names like Sequoia Capital and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, this one was not led by a traditional Silicon Valley backer. In fact, several major venture capital firms declined to participate at the lower level.
A Square spokeswoman declined to comment.
In the increasingly competitive and crowded world of mobile payments, Square stands out.
Its marquee product is a square-shaped credit card reader that plugs into smartphone earbud jacks. It helps individuals and small vendors, like taxi drivers and nail salons, accept credit card payments on their mobile phones. Square provides the reader and the software free, but charges the users 2.75 percent of the transaction. Of that fee, it collects a small amount and sends the rest to credit card companies.
Adoption has been fast. In the first six months of this year, the company has roughly doubled the number of users to two million. At its current pace, it is processing $6 billion in transactions a year.
Since introducing the hardware, Mr. Dorsey has expanded the company’s offerings to include Square Register, an application that turns an iPad into a credit card register for small businesses, and Pay With Square, an app for customers to use.
Under Pay With Square, users can link their credit card accounts to trusted merchants and open “tabs” with these vendors. Once a tab is set up, a user can then walk into a store and simply tell the cashier to put purchases on his tab. The cashier, using Square’s software, will then see a photo of the user and confirm the purchase.
But Square, despite its early success, is still just one of many players trying to own the future of real-world payments.
Google recently introduced Google Wallet, a mobile app that lets users pay by tapping a phone on special readers at participating vendors. Several companies now have their own hardware, including Intuit, Verifone and PayPal, which has a triangle-shaped card reader named PayPal Here. Apple, with its loyal fan base and giant cache of credit card information, is expected to get in the game soon.
Square, meanwhile, will also have to prove success outside of its signature reader. Because of the fees it pays to third parties, the company makes very little on each transaction. And given the competition, margins will remain under pressure.
Instead, its financial future may hinge more on apps like Pay With Square, which could deliver customized ads and promote premium merchant services. The company has signed up more than 75,000 vendors, but it is unclear how many consumers are regularly using the app.
Claire Cain Miller contributed reporting.