At Frankfurt Automobile Show, the Driver Began to Take a Back Seat

FRANKFURT — A wide grin beneath his bushy mustache, Dieter Zetsche, the chief executive of Daimler, did as car executives often do at auto shows, cruising onto the stage in the company’s newest model. But at the Frankfurt motor show last week, Mr. Zetsche added a surprise: he sprang from the back of a Mercedes S-Class that had no one in the driver’s seat.

Cars that drive themselves have been a science fiction dream for decades, but at the Frankfurt show, there was a palpable sense that the technology was moving quickly from laboratories and test vehicles to dealer showrooms. If the visionaries have their way, the autonomous autos could greatly reduce the number of accidents and give makers — especially in Europe — something they badly need: a new reason for people to buy cars.

While robot taxis and the like are still probably more than a decade away, auto executives said, cars that handle most of the driving with minimal human intervention could be available by the end of this decade.

“In 2020, all the problems and challenges we are seeing today in allowing an autonomous driving car will be solved,” Carlos Ghosn, the chief executive of the Renault-Nissan alliance, told reporters at the auto show.

The latest version of the Mercedes S-Class, which goes on sale in the United States next month starting at slightly more than $92,000, is able to brake and accelerate by itself on the highway or in stop-and-go traffic. And it can steer itself on a straight or lightly curved road. For safety and legal reasons, the driver still needs to keep a hand on the wheel, and to be ready to cope with more complicated situations.

Luxury carmakers like BMW and Audi are working on their own autonomous systems, which are moving ever closer to vehicles that can do almost all the driving themselves. While buyers of expensive vehicles will get the technology first, suppliers and midmarket automakers are pushing hard to bring self-driving features to the masses, making them as affordable and ubiquitous as cruise control and anti-lock brakes.

“We don’t want to create functions that are only available in superpremium autos,” said Christian Senger, head of research for automotive systems at the German auto components maker Continental, which supplies radar sensors and stereo cameras used by the S-Class.

“These people don’t need electronic chauffeurs,” Mr. Senger said of luxury car buyers. “They already have humans.”

Autonomous driving was one technology trend in Frankfurt that almost all the carmakers seemed to be excited about. Even Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who visited Thursday, hailed what she said was the convergence of digital innovation with traditional German strengths in manufacturing, calling it a “fabulous opportunity.”

While big technological hurdles remain, the potential rewards of self-driving cars are enormous, both for society and the car industry. Such vehicles would allow drivers to be productive at times when they are otherwise stuck in traffic. They could drastically improve safety. A self-driving car could theoretically allow its owner to continue texting or uploading photos to Facebook.

“There is less error in systems than in humans,” said Mr. Ghosn of Renault-Nissan. “Computers do not drink or sleep.”

Carmakers also hope that self-driving technology could help arrest an alarming slide in auto sales among younger people. An increasing proportion of young people in developed countries are not bothering to get drivers’ licenses, preferring to spend their money on smartphones. The trend bodes ill for the car industry’s long-term health.

Mr. Ghosn speculated that governments could even lower the legal age for drivers. His reasoning seems to be that autonomous technology could help compensate for teenage immaturity.

Thomas Weber, head of research and development at Daimler, said he was not worried that young people would lose interest in cars. But he agreed that autonomous driving technology would be a crucial selling point in the future. Environmental concerns and changing tastes mean that V-12 engines and all-leather interiors are not as desirable as they used to be. The technology in the new S-Class, which Mercedes plans to offer in other models like the E-Class range and some sport utility vehicles, may already be helping the company regain ground it lost in recent years to BMW and Audi.